China Biotech Outbound Licensing Tracker: The $136 Billion Deal Wave
One-third of all global pharma licensing spending in 2025 involved drugs from China. 90% of ADC licensing. $135.7 billion in cross-border deals. The definitive tracker for pharma BD professionals.
The Outbound Licensing Revolution
Chinese biotechs are no longer the junior partner in cross-border deals. In 2025, Chinese drugmakers signed a record $135.7 billion in outbound licensing agreements — representing one-third of all global licensing spend. This seismic shift means that any pharma BD team not actively sourcing assets from China is missing the single largest pool of innovative drug candidates in the world.
Executive Summary
2025 was the year China became the world's most important source of licensable drug assets. With $135.7 billion in outbound licensing deals — a figure that would have been unimaginable five years ago — Chinese biotechs have fundamentally reshaped the global pharma deal landscape.
The numbers are staggering: 32% of worldwide out-licensing deal value came from China in Q1 2025, up from 21% in 2023-2024. In H1 2025, 24 deals exceeded $1 billion in total value. Chinese companies now dominate ADC licensing (90% of global activity) and are rapidly becoming leaders in bispecific antibodies, targeted protein degraders, and cell therapies.
China Outbound Licensing: 2025 Record
The Innovation Arbitrage Opportunity
The $136B Record: 2025 in Numbers
The scale and velocity of Chinese outbound licensing in 2025 was unprecedented. By H1 2025 alone, US and European companies had signed 14 licensing agreements worth up to $18.3 billion for Chinese assets — compared to just 2 such deals in H1 2024.
China Outbound Licensing Growth (2021-2025)
| Year | Total Deal Value | $1B+ Deals | Key Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ~$15B | 5-8 | Emerging model; BeiGene-Novartis landmark |
| 2022 | ~$25B | 8-12 | ADC licensing begins to surge |
| 2023 | ~$50B | 15-20 | Bispecifics emerge; deal sizes increase |
| 2024 | ~$80B | 20+ | AZ-Daiichi, Pfizer-Seagen spark interest |
| 2025 | $135.7B | 24 (H1 alone) | Record year; China = 1/3 of global licensing |
Top Outbound Licensing Deals (2024-2025)
Landmark China Outbound Licensing Deals
| Chinese Licensor | Western Licensee | Asset | Total Value | Modality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hengrui | GSK | HRS-9821 (COPD) | $12.5B | Small Molecule |
| Argo Biopharma | Novartis | Undisclosed | $5.36B | Biologic |
| CSPC Pharma | AstraZeneca | ADC pipeline | $5.3B | ADC |
| Akeso | Summit | Ivonescimab (AK112) | $5.0B | Bispecific |
| InnoCare | Zenas Biopharma | Autoimmune assets | $2.0B | Biologic |
| Hengrui | Merck KGaA | SHR-1905 (bispecific) | $1.4B | Bispecific |
| Biotheus | BioNTech | PM8002 (PD-L1/VEGF) | $1.3B+ | Bispecific |
| Hengrui | Braveheart Bio (NewCo) | HRS-1893 (cardio) | $1.1B | Small Molecule |
| Kelun-Biotech | Merck | ADC candidates | $1.4B+ | ADC |
Hengrui — GSK: The Largest China Outbound Deal of 2025
Hengrui Pharmaceuticals → GlaxoSmithKline • Respiratory (COPD)
GSK needed to strengthen its respiratory franchise beyond Nucala and Trelegy. Hengrui had developed HRS-9821 for COPD but lacked global commercial infrastructure in respiratory.
GSK acquired ex-China rights to HRS-9821 in a deal valued up to $12.5 billion — the largest single outbound licensing transaction from a Chinese biotech in 2025.
The deal validates Hengrui's emergence as China's most prolific deal-maker and demonstrates that Chinese innovation now extends well beyond oncology into respiratory, cardiovascular, and metabolic diseases.
Therapeutic Area Analysis: Where China Leads
The concentration of Chinese outbound licensing in specific modalities reveals where China has developed world-leading capabilities — and where BD teams should focus their sourcing efforts.
ADCs (Antibody-Drug Conjugates)
~90% of global licensingKey Deals: CSPC-AZ, Kelun-Merck, RemeGen, SystImmune
BD Signal: China dominates ADC innovation. Nearly all ADC licensing globally involves Chinese assets.
Bispecific Antibodies
~50% of global dealsKey Deals: Akeso-Summit, Biotheus-BioNTech, Hengrui-Merck KGaA
BD Signal: PD-1/VEGF bispecifics are the hottest space. 7 of 9 clinical candidates originate from China.
Small Molecules (Next-Gen)
Growing rapidlyKey Deals: Hengrui-GSK, various KRAS/CDK4 programs
BD Signal: China is expanding beyond biologics into complex small molecules for respiratory, metabolic diseases.
Cell & Gene Therapy
EmergingKey Deals: Legend-J&J (CARVYKTI), Gracell-AbbVie
BD Signal: PitchBook notes China's edge in cell therapy "likely to persist." Watch for increasing CGT licensing.
China's ADC Dominance
Key Chinese Biotech Licensors
Understanding the landscape of Chinese licensors — their pipelines, deal-making preferences, and partnership histories — is essential for BD teams sourcing cross-border opportunities.
Hengrui Medicine
- Deal Volume: $15B+ outbound (2025)
- Focus: Small molecule, bispecific, ADC
- Deal Style: Selective, premium pricing, retain China rights
Akeso Biopharma
- Deal Volume: $5B (ivonescimab)
- Focus: Bispecific antibodies (PD-1/VEGF)
- Deal Style: Single mega-deal for lead asset, pipeline available
CSPC Pharmaceutical
- Deal Volume: $5.3B (AZ deal)
- Focus: ADCs, small molecules
- Deal Style: Platform deals, broad collaboration
Innovent Biologics
- Deal Volume: $3B+ cumulative
- Focus: I/O, bispecifics, ADCs
- Deal Style: Active licensor, Eli Lilly relationship
Legend Biotech
- Deal Volume: $4.5B+ (J&J CARVYKTI)
- Focus: CAR-T cell therapy
- Deal Style: Strategic partnership model (J&J exclusive)
Hansoh Pharma
- Deal Volume: $2B+ cumulative
- Focus: Oncology, CNS, metabolic
- Deal Style: Emerging deal-maker, growing pipeline
Deal Structure Evolution
Chinese outbound licensing deal structures have evolved dramatically from the early days of modest regional licensing into sophisticated multi-billion-dollar transactions with complex economics.
Rising Upfront Payments
Average upfront payments for China-originated assets have increased 3-5x since 2021. For Phase II+ oncology assets, upfront payments of $200-500M are now common, with total deal values routinely exceeding $1 billion. Chinese licensors are no longer accepting low upfronts for large milestone-heavy deals.
The NewCo Model Emerges
A notable 2025 trend: NewCo licensing models are increasingly used for Chinese outbound deals. Hengrui's $1.1B deal with Braveheart Bio (a NewCo funded by Forbion/OrbiMed) demonstrates this pattern — Chinese licensors grant rights to VC-backed NewCos rather than established pharma, often capturing better economics and faster development timelines.
Territory Sophistication
Chinese licensors are increasingly sophisticated about territory carve-outs. Rather than licensing "ex-China" as a single block, deals now frequently separate US, EU, Japan, and emerging market rights — enabling multiple deals per asset and maximizing total value extraction.
BIOSECURE Act: Impact on China Licensing
The BIOSECURE Act is the elephant in the room for China cross-border deals. But the reality is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.
NOT Affected by BIOSECURE
- Drug licensing agreements
- Technology transfer arrangements
- IP licensing and assignment
- Clinical development partnerships
- Non-Chinese manufacturing of licensed assets
Affected by BIOSECURE
- Manufacturing by designated Chinese CDMOs
- Use of Chinese genomics/sequencing services
- Clinical supply from Chinese-owned facilities
- Data services from BCCs
- Any BCC-related procurement for federal contracts
The Manufacturing Diligence Item
Due Diligence Framework for Chinese Assets
Evaluating Chinese-originated assets requires a specialized diligence framework that addresses both the scientific merits and the unique cross-border complexities.
Data Integrity & Clinical Quality
Review CRO partnerships, site monitoring records, and GCP compliance documentation. Many top Chinese biotechs now use global CROs (IQVIA, Parexel, Covance) for pivotal trials. Verify that Chinese clinical data meets FDA/EMA standards for global filings.
IP & Freedom-to-Operate
Conduct thorough patent landscape analysis. Chinese patent quality has improved dramatically, but composition-of-matter claims, antibody sequence patents, and manufacturing process patents need careful review. Ensure FTO in target markets.
Manufacturing & CMC Readiness
Assess whether the manufacturing process can be transferred to a non-Chinese CDMO if needed. Evaluate analytical methods, characterization data, stability data, and process scalability. This is the most common gap in China-originated assets.
Regulatory Strategy
Determine whether the NMPA data package supports an FDA/EMA filing, or whether additional bridging studies are required. Some Chinese clinical designs (particularly in oncology) are now designed to support global registrations from the outset.
Cultural & Governance Considerations
Understand the licensor's decision-making structure, communication norms, and negotiation style. Chinese biotech leadership teams often include both Chinese and Western-educated executives. Relationship-building is essential.
The NewCo Licensing Model: A Growing Trend
One of the most significant developments in 2025 was the emergence of the NewCo model for Chinese outbound licensing. Rather than licensing assets to established pharma companies, Chinese biotechs are increasingly partnering with VC-backed NewCos that offer:
- Higher Economics: NewCo structures often give the Chinese licensor a significant equity stake in addition to upfront and milestone payments, capturing more long-term upside.
- Faster Decision-Making: NewCos don't have the internal governance hurdles of Big Pharma. Deal timelines from LOI to close can be 3-6 months versus 9-18 months with large pharma.
- Asset Focus: A NewCo provides 100% focus on the licensed asset, versus competing for attention within a large pharma portfolio.
- Built-to-Buy: The end game for most NewCos is acquisition by Big Pharma — meaning the Chinese licensor ultimately benefits from the premium paid at exit.
The Hengrui-Braveheart Precedent
Conclusion: The New Center of Gravity
The data is unambiguous: China has become the world's most important source of licensable drug assets. With $135.7 billion in outbound deals in 2025 alone, Chinese biotechs are no longer the emerging market supplement to Western innovation — they are a co-equal engine of global pharmaceutical R&D.
For BD professionals, the implications are strategic and urgent. Any licensing strategy that does not include systematic China asset sourcing is structurally incomplete. The companies that build the deepest relationships with Chinese licensors, develop the most rigorous cross-border diligence capabilities, and move fastest on opportunities will capture disproportionate value in the decade ahead.
At Vision Lifesciences, China cross-border licensing is our core competency. With offices in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Zurich, and Chicago, we bridge the gap between Chinese biotech innovation and Western commercial strategy — providing the deal origination, due diligence, and negotiation support that cross-border transactions demand.