Pharma Deal Tracker 2026: The Definitive M&A & Licensing Roundup
$240 billion in life sciences M&A. $250 billion across 516 licensing deals. The biggest dealmaking year in pharma history—and what it means for 2026.
The Year Pharma Went All-In
2025 was the year the pharmaceutical industry stopped waiting. Faced with a $200-250 billion patent cliff, surging competition in obesity and oncology, and an explosion of innovation from Chinese biotech, the world's largest drugmakers deployed capital at record pace. M&A surged 81% to $240 billion. Licensing deals topped $250 billion across 516 transactions. And China cross-border deals went from a trickle to a torrent. This tracker covers every major transaction.
2025 Deal Market Overview
By every measure, 2025 was a record year for pharmaceutical dealmaking. The numbers tell a story of an industry racing against the patent cliff, pivoting toward next-generation modalities, and increasingly looking to China for innovative assets.
2025 Deal Market at a Glance
The shift from 2024 was dramatic. Where 2024 was characterized by smaller, bolt-on acquisitions and cautious deal structures, 2025 saw the return of mega-deals. Average deal size nearly doubled as acquirers concentrated capital on fewer, higher-confidence assets. Multiple transactions exceeded $5 billion—a rarity just 12 months prior.
M&A Volume Growth
Top 10 M&A Deals of 2025
The largest acquisitions of 2025 reveal the industry's strategic priorities: CNS dominance, obesity gold rush, respiratory pipeline gaps, and rare disease portfolio expansion.
2025 Biopharma M&A: Top 10 by Deal Value
| # | Acquirer | Target | Value | Area |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnson & Johnson | Intra-Cellular Therapies | $14.6B | CNS |
| 2 | Novartis | Avidity Biosciences | $12.0B | Neuromuscular |
| 3 | Pfizer | Metsera | ~$10B | Obesity/GLP-1 |
| 4 | Merck | Verona Pharma | $10.0B | Respiratory |
| 5 | Sanofi | Blueprint Medicines | $9.5B | Rare Disease |
| 6 | Merck | Cidara Therapeutics | $9.2B | Antiviral |
| 7 | Novo Nordisk | Akero Therapeutics | $5.2B | Metabolic/MASH |
| 8 | BioMarin | Amicus Therapeutics | $4.8B | Rare Disease |
| 9 | Roche | 89bio | $3.5B | Metabolic/MASH |
| 10 | Jazz Pharma | Chimerix | $935M | Oncology/CNS |
Key M&A Deep Dives
J&J / Intra-Cellular: The #1 Deal of 2025
Johnson & Johnson → Intra-Cellular Therapies • CNS / Psychiatry
J&J needed to strengthen its neuroscience franchise amid growing competition and patent expiration pressures across its portfolio.
Acquired Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion, gaining Caplyta (lumateperone)—a differentiated treatment for schizophrenia and bipolar depression with blockbuster potential and a clean safety profile.
Completed April 2025. Caplyta strengthens J&J's CNS leadership and provides a platform for next-generation psychiatric drug development.
Pfizer / Metsera: The GLP-1 Bidding War
Pfizer → Metsera (vs. Novo Nordisk) • Obesity / GLP-1
Pfizer needed a competitive GLP-1 asset after its own internal obesity program underperformed. Metsera's GLP-1 showed 14.1% weight loss plus a promising amylin analog.
Won a dramatic bidding war against Novo Nordisk with a sweetened ~$10 billion offer including CVRs. FTC warned Novo that its counter-bid structure may not comply with U.S. merger law, ultimately clearing the path for Pfizer.
Finalized November 2025. Gives Pfizer a credible GLP-1 asset plus a next-generation amylin combination approach for the $100B+ obesity market.
Additional Notable M&A
- Sanofi / Dynavax Technologies — ~$2.2B (expected close Q1 2026)
- AbbVie / Capstan — up to $2.1B (targeted lipid nanoparticle platform for RNA delivery)
- Eli Lilly / Orna Therapeutics — $2.4B (announced early 2026)
- Sun Pharma / Checkpoint Therapeutics — PD-L1 inhibitor Unloxcyt for advanced skin cancer
- Bristol Myers Squibb / Orbital Therapeutics — cell therapy portfolio expansion
Mega Licensing Deals
Biopharma announced more than $250 billion across 516 licensing deals in 2025, with milestone-heavy structures dominating. The biggest deals reflect two mega-trends: the obesity gold rush and Chinese innovation going global.
Top Licensing Deals 2025-2026 by Total Value
| Partners | Upfront | Total Value | Area |
|---|---|---|---|
| AstraZeneca / CSPC Pharma | $1.2B | $18.5B | GLP-1/Obesity |
| GSK / Hengrui Pharma | $500M | $12B+ | Respiratory + IO |
| Pfizer / 3SBio | $1.25B | $6B | Oncology (Bispecific) |
| Novartis / Monte Rosa | $120M | $5.7B | Immunology |
| AbbVie / RemeGen | $650M | $5.6B | Oncology (Bispecific) |
| Novartis / Argo Biopharma | — | $5.36B | Undisclosed |
| AstraZeneca / CSPC Pharma | — | $5.3B | Oncology |
| Roche / Zealand Pharma | $1.65B | $5.3B+ | Obesity (Amylin) |
| AstraZeneca / Harbour BioMed | $175M | $4.6B | Immunology |
| Vor Bio / RemeGen | — | $4B+ | Autoimmune |
The Radiopharmaceutical Wave
Radiopharmaceuticals emerged as a major deal category in 2025, with the market expected to double from $6.8 billion (2024) to $13.4 billion by 2033. Key deals include:
- Sanofi / RadioMedix + Orano Med — $110M upfront + $242.5M milestones for AlphaMedix (lead-212Pb targeted radioligand for neuroendocrine tumors)
- Eli Lilly / Aktis Oncology — $60M upfront, up to $1.1B for miniprotein radioconjugate platform targeting Nectin-4
- Novartis / PeptiDream — up to $2.7B for radiopharmaceutical partnership
- Lantheus / Evergreen Theragnostics — $250M upfront + $752.5M milestones
- Lantheus / Life Molecular Imaging — $350M upfront + $400M milestones
The Obesity Arms Race
China Cross-Border: The Breakout Year
2025 was the year Chinese biotech innovation went definitively global. By mid-2025, Western drugmakers had signed 14 licensing agreements worth up to $18.3 billion for Chinese assets—up from just 2 deals in the same period of 2024. By early 2026, 38 Chinese out-licensing deals had already been announced.
China Cross-Border Deal Surge
Top China-to-West Licensing Deals
| Western Partner | Chinese Company | Total Value | Modality |
|---|---|---|---|
| AstraZeneca | CSPC Pharmaceutical | $18.5B | GLP-1 (once-monthly) |
| GSK | Hengrui Pharma | $12B+ | 12 programs (respiratory, IO) |
| Pfizer | 3SBio | $6B | PD-1×VEGF bispecific |
| AbbVie | RemeGen | $5.6B | PD-1×VEGF bispecific |
| Novartis | Argo Biopharma | $5.36B | Undisclosed |
| AstraZeneca | Harbour BioMed | $4.6B | Immunology |
| Vor Bio | RemeGen | $4B+ | Autoimmune |
| Regeneron | Hansoh Pharma | $2.01B | GLP-1/GIP (obesity) |
| Zenas Biopharma | InnoCare Pharma | $2B | Immunology |
| Pfizer | Yao Pharma (Fosun) | $2B+ | GLP-1 (obesity) |
The Valuation Discount
Despite the surge in deal activity, Chinese innovative assets still command significantly lower valuations compared to Western peers. Analysis shows that Chinese assets receive 60-70% lower upfront payments and 40-50% smaller total deal sizes compared to comparable Western biotech programs. This "China discount" represents a significant arbitrage opportunity for Western pharma companies—and a growing frustration for Chinese biotechs seeking fair value.
Vision Lifesciences Perspective
Therapeutic Area Trends
CNS / Neurology
$30.7BOvertook oncology as #1 in deal value. Driven by J&J/Intra-Cellular ($14.6B) and Novartis/Avidity ($12B). Large patient populations with immature treatment markets.
Oncology
$23.5BRemains highly active: ADCs, bispecifics, radiopharmaceuticals, and protein degraders driving innovation. Chinese cross-border deals heavily weighted here.
Obesity / Cardiometabolic
6-8 mega-dealsThe biggest licensing story of the year. Race shifted from "who has a GLP-1" to "who has the best oral, once-monthly, or amylin combination."
Immunology / Autoimmune
$14.7B (H1 only)21 partnerships in first half of 2025 alone. Biologics platforms accounted for ~80% of deal value. Key frontier: next-gen CAR-T for autoimmune.
Radiopharmaceuticals
$6.8B→$13.4BEmerging hot zone. Market expected to double by 2033. Aktis Oncology's $318M IPO was the first biotech IPO of 2026.
Rare Disease
$26.3BBioMarin/Amicus ($4.8B), Sanofi/Blueprint ($9.5B), Novartis/Avidity ($12B). Premium valuations for de-risked commercial-stage assets.
Deal Structure Evolution
How deals are structured changed significantly in 2025. The key trends reflect both bullish conviction and persistent risk management:
CVR Proliferation
Contingent Value Rights (CVRs) were used in more deals than ever: Pfizer/Metsera, Novo/Akero, and Roche/89bio all incorporated CVRs. This allows acquirers to bridge valuation gaps while protecting downside risk.
Milestone Surge
Average milestone payments increased 255% in Q4 2025 versus Q3. Upfront cash remained steady at ~7% of total deal value, with milestone-based compensation and tiered royalties dominating structures.
Late-Stage Preference
Approximately 58% of total deal value went to Phase III or marketed products. Acquirers concentrated capital on fewer, higher-confidence assets—resulting in larger individual deal sizes but fewer total transactions.
China Deal Structures
China cross-border deals typically split by territory (ex-China rights). Upfronts are 60-70% lower than Western comparables. But structures are becoming more sophisticated—multi-asset platform deals (like GSK/Hengrui's 12-program pact) are increasing.
IPO & Financing Activity
The biotech IPO window reopened decisively in late 2025 and accelerated into early 2026. Four companies raised over $1.2 billion in just three days in February 2026.
Notable Biotech IPOs (Late 2025 - Early 2026)
| Company | Raised | Focus | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eikon Therapeutics | $381M | AI Drug Discovery | Feb 2026 |
| Aktis Oncology | $318M | Radiopharmaceuticals | Jan 2026 |
| MapLight Therapeutics | $296M | CNS | Oct 2025 |
| LB Pharmaceuticals | $285M | Undisclosed | Sep 2025 |
| Veradermics | $256M | Dermatology | Feb 2026 |
| Evommune | $150M | Inflammatory Disease | 2025 |
The IPO Window Is Open
Notable Collapsed Deals
Not every deal in 2025-2026 crossed the finish line. The most significant failure offers critical lessons about valuation discipline and deal dynamics.
Merck / Revolution Medicines — Collapsed (January 2026)
Merck was in advanced talks to acquire Revolution Medicines for an estimated $28-32 billion—which would have been the biggest biotech deal since Pfizer/Seagen ($45.6B in 2023). The deal collapsed over price disagreement, with Revolution insisting on a higher valuation. Revolution's stock dropped approximately 20% on the news. The lead asset, daraxonrasib, is an oral cancer treatment for pancreatic and colorectal cancers. The deal could potentially restart if Revolution posts strong clinical data in H1 2026.
Eli Lilly / Abivax — Unconfirmed (January 2026)
Reports surfaced of Lilly working on a potential EUR 15 billion (~$17.5B) takeover of French biotech Abivax, whose lead asset obefazimod (first-in-class miR-124 enhancer for ulcerative colitis/Crohn's) is in Phase 3 with forecasted $1.8B peak sales. Abivax CEO dismissed reports as "noise." No formal steps confirmed.
2026 Outlook: Another Record Year?
Multiple analysts expect 2026 to match or exceed 2025's dealmaking pace. The fundamental drivers remain intact—and may be intensifying.
2026 Forecasts
Themes to Watch in 2026
Oral GLP-1 Race
Pfizer, Lilly, Roche, and AstraZeneca are all racing for best-in-class oral obesity drugs. Expect more deals around small molecule GLP-1 agonists.
ADC 2.0
Next-generation ADCs with novel payloads, linkers, and targets. Chinese biotechs remain the primary licensors. Expect deal values to keep climbing.
Radiopharmaceutical Consolidation
With the market doubling, expect more acquisitions of radiopharm platforms and manufacturing capacity.
AI-Native Drug Discovery
IPOs like Eikon and Generate:Biomedicines signal a new wave. AI platforms will increasingly be acquisition targets.
BIOSECURE-Driven Restructuring
The BIOSECURE Act will force supply chain restructuring, triggering CDMO capacity deals and partnership realignments.
China Cross-Border Volume
With 38 out-licensing deals already announced by early 2026, the pace is accelerating. The valuation discount is narrowing but persists.