GLP-1 Licensing Landscape 2026: The Hottest Deal Space in Pharma
$50 billion in deal value. 8+ mega-deals. The race for next-gen oral, monthly, and combination obesity treatments is transforming pharma dealmaking.
The Obesity Gold Rush
GLP-1 receptor agonists have created the largest new pharmaceutical market in a generation. Projected to exceed $100 billion by 2030, the obesity/cardiometabolic space drew more licensing dollars in 2025 than any other therapeutic area. Every top-20 pharma company is now either developing, licensing, or acquiring GLP-1 assets. This analysis maps every major deal, identifies the next-gen approaches commanding premium valuations, and highlights remaining BD white space.
The $100B+ Market Opportunity
GLP-1 Market by the Numbers
The scale of the opportunity is staggering. The World Health Organization estimates 764 million adults were living with obesity globally in 2024—a number projected to exceed 1 billion by 2030. Current GLP-1 treatments address less than 2% of this population, suggesting massive room for growth as access expands, pricing normalizes, and next-gen formulations improve convenience.
Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy generated $25.7 billion in 2024 revenue. Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound reached approximately $15.5 billion. Together, these two companies control roughly 90% of the current market—but with dozens of competitors advancing through clinical trials, this duopoly will face increasing pressure.
Beyond Weight Loss
2025 GLP-1 Deal Landscape
At least 8 mega-deals in the GLP-1/obesity space were announced in 2025, with total deal values exceeding $50 billion. The race has shifted from "who has a GLP-1" to "who has the best oral, once-monthly, or combination approach."
Major GLP-1/Obesity Deals (2025)
| Deal | Type | Value | Approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| AstraZeneca / CSPC Pharma | License | $18.5B | Once-monthly injectable GLP-1 |
| Pfizer / Metsera | M&A | ~$10B | GLP-1 + amylin analog |
| Roche / Zealand Pharma | License | $5.3B+ | Amylin analog (petrelintide) |
| Novo Nordisk / Septerna | License | $2.2B | Oral GPCR modulator |
| Regeneron / Hansoh Pharma | License | $2.01B | GLP-1/GIP dual agonist |
| Pfizer / Yao Pharma (Fosun) | License | $2B+ | Oral GLP-1 |
| Novo Nordisk / Akero | M&A | $5.2B | MASH (FGF21 analog) |
| Roche / 89bio | M&A | $3.5B | MASH (FGF21 analog) |
AstraZeneca / CSPC: The $18.5B GLP-1 Mega-Deal
AstraZeneca ← CSPC Pharmaceutical • Obesity / GLP-1
AstraZeneca lacked a competitive GLP-1 franchise despite being a top-5 pharma company. Needed a differentiated asset to compete with Novo and Lilly.
Licensed CSPC's once-monthly injectable GLP-1 receptor agonist for ex-China rights in a deal valued at up to $18.5 billion with a $1.2 billion upfront. The monthly dosing represents a significant convenience advantage.
AstraZeneca's largest-ever licensing deal. Gives them a potentially best-in-class GLP-1 with a differentiated monthly dosing regimen. CSPC retains China rights.
Next-Generation Approaches
The GLP-1 landscape is evolving rapidly. Current injectable semaglutide and tirzepatide are generation one. The next wave focuses on improved convenience, efficacy, and differentiated mechanisms.
Oral GLP-1 Agonists
The holy grail. Novo's oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) was the first, but with lower efficacy than injectable. Structure Therapeutics' GSBR-1290 showed 8.1% weight loss in Phase 2. Multiple Chinese biotechs developing oral candidates.
Key deals: Novo/Septerna ($2.2B), Pfizer/Yao ($2B+)
Once-Monthly Injectables
Reducing injection frequency from weekly to monthly. CSPC's long-acting GLP-1 licensed to AstraZeneca. Jiangsu Hengrui also developing monthly formulations. Key advantage: better adherence in primary care settings.
Key deals: AstraZeneca/CSPC ($18.5B)
Dual/Triple Agonists
Multi-target approaches: GLP-1/GIP (tirzepatide model), GLP-1/GIP/glucagon triple agonists (Lilly's retatrutide showed 24.2% weight loss in Phase 2). Broader metabolic benefits including glycemic control, lipid lowering, and MASH resolution.
Key deals: Regeneron/Hansoh ($2.01B)
Amylin Analogs
Amylin works through different pathways than GLP-1—central appetite suppression and gastric emptying. Zealand's petrelintide + semaglutide combination showed 22.4% weight loss in Phase 2. The combination approach may be best-in-class.
Key deals: Roche/Zealand ($5.3B), Pfizer/Metsera (~$10B)
Muscle-Sparing Approaches
GLP-1-induced weight loss includes 20-40% lean mass. Next-gen assets focus on preserving muscle: myostatin inhibitors, activin receptor antibodies, and combination regimens. This is the emerging "GLP-1 2.0" thesis—weight loss without muscle loss.
Key deals: Multiple early-stage deals
Competitive Landscape
GLP-1/Obesity Competitive Positioning
| Company | Key Assets | Differentiation | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novo Nordisk | Semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic), CagriSema | Market leader; semaglutide+cagrilintide combo | Marketed / Phase 3 |
| Eli Lilly | Tirzepatide (Zepbound), Retatrutide, Orforglipron | Dual agonist (GIP/GLP-1); oral + triple agonist | Marketed / Phase 3 |
| AstraZeneca | CSPC once-monthly GLP-1 | Monthly dosing convenience | Phase 1 (licensed) |
| Pfizer | Metsera GLP-1 + amylin, Danuglipron | Oral + combination approach | Phase 2 / Phase 3 |
| Roche | Zealand amylin, CT-996 (oral GLP-1) | Amylin combo; oral GLP-1 small molecule | Phase 2 |
| Amgen | MariTide (AMG 133) | GIP receptor antagonist / GLP-1 agonist bispecific | Phase 3 |
| Viking Therapeutics | VK2735 | Subcutaneous + oral GLP-1/GIP dual agonist | Phase 2/3 |
China's GLP-1 Pipeline
Chinese biotechs have become key licensors in the GLP-1 space, with multiple companies developing competitive assets at significantly lower cost. Key players include:
- CSPC Pharmaceutical: Largest China-to-West GLP-1 deal ($18.5B to AstraZeneca). Once-monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist.
- Hansoh Pharmaceutical: Licensed GLP-1/GIP dual agonist to Regeneron for $2.01B. Also developing HS-10535 (oral) and next-gen combinations.
- Yao Pharma (Fosun): Licensed oral GLP-1 to Pfizer for $2B+. A key player in the oral formulation race.
- Jiangsu Hengrui: Multiple GLP-1 programs including HRS-7535 (once-monthly injectable). Part of the massive GSK/Hengrui 12-program deal.
- Innovent Biologics: Developing mazdutide (GLP-1/glucagon dual agonist). Filed for NMPA approval with strong Phase 3 data showing 16% weight loss.
The China Discount in GLP-1
BD Opportunities & White Space
Muscle-sparing obesity
No approved therapy preserves lean mass during GLP-1-induced weight loss. Companies developing myostatin inhibitors, activin receptor antibodies, or exercise mimetics for combination with GLP-1 have a massive market.
Oral small molecule GLP-1
Despite enormous demand, only one oral GLP-1 is approved (Rybelsus, with modest efficacy). Multiple Chinese biotechs have early-stage oral candidates—licensing opportunities exist at favorable terms.
Pediatric/adolescent obesity
GLP-1s are being studied in adolescents, but the market is underserved. Companies with pediatric-friendly formulations or safety data have significant partnership potential.
Combination devices
GLP-1 + digital therapeutics, GLP-1 + connected devices for adherence monitoring. The intersection of pharma and MedTech in obesity is largely unexplored.
MASH resolution
GLP-1s show MASH resolution in 40-60% of patients. Dedicated MASH indications for GLP-1 agonists represent a $10-20B+ market extension opportunity.